Utilization of Holt’s forecasting model for zakat collection in Indonesia

Akbarizan, Muhammad Marizal, M. Soleh, Hertina, A. Mohammad Abdi, Rado Yendra, Ahmad Fudholi

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

The practice of zakat is gaining popularity in Indonesia. This development is attributed to the strong role of the government in consistently developing zakat infrastructure and the increased awareness of people to practice zakat. Despite this success, a mechanism for predicting future zakat collection has not yet been developed. This study applies Holt’s exponential smoothing and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to forecast zakat in Indonesia using zakat collection from 2009 to 2014. Results show that Holt’s exponential smoothing is best fits the zakat time series data and is therefore suitable for forecasting zakat. Holt’s exponential smoothing is comparable to the ARIMA model given its small deviations in mean absolute percentage error and mean square error. Moreover, the software used to implement Holt's exponential smoothing is similar to that used in ARIMA models. These similarities show that these models can accurately forecast future trends to prepare proper strategies and plan the future of the organization. These models can also be used to develop a plan for managing charity based on the number of recorded mustahiq.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1342-1346
Number of pages5
JournalAmerican Journal of Applied Sciences
Volume13
Issue number12
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 22 Dec 2016

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smoothing
infrastructure
time series
software
forecast
plan

Keywords

  • Forecasting
  • Holt’s Exponential Smoothing
  • Trend
  • Zakat

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General

Cite this

Utilization of Holt’s forecasting model for zakat collection in Indonesia. / Akbarizan; Marizal, Muhammad; Soleh, M.; Hertina; Mohammad Abdi, A.; Yendra, Rado; Fudholi, Ahmad.

In: American Journal of Applied Sciences, Vol. 13, No. 12, 22.12.2016, p. 1342-1346.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Akbarizan, Marizal, M, Soleh, M, Hertina, Mohammad Abdi, A, Yendra, R & Fudholi, A 2016, 'Utilization of Holt’s forecasting model for zakat collection in Indonesia', American Journal of Applied Sciences, vol. 13, no. 12, pp. 1342-1346. https://doi.org/10.3844/ajassp.2016.1342.1346
Akbarizan, Marizal M, Soleh M, Hertina, Mohammad Abdi A, Yendra R et al. Utilization of Holt’s forecasting model for zakat collection in Indonesia. American Journal of Applied Sciences. 2016 Dec 22;13(12):1342-1346. https://doi.org/10.3844/ajassp.2016.1342.1346
Akbarizan ; Marizal, Muhammad ; Soleh, M. ; Hertina ; Mohammad Abdi, A. ; Yendra, Rado ; Fudholi, Ahmad. / Utilization of Holt’s forecasting model for zakat collection in Indonesia. In: American Journal of Applied Sciences. 2016 ; Vol. 13, No. 12. pp. 1342-1346.
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