Uncertainty analysis for extreme flood events in a semi-arid region

Majid Mirzaei, Yuk Feng Huang, Ahmed El-Shafie, Tayebeh Chimeh, Juneseok Lee, Nariman Vaizadeh, Jan Adamowski

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    15 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Extreme flood events are complex and inherently uncertain phenomenons. Consequently forecasts of floods are inherently uncertain in nature due to various sources of uncertainty including model uncertainty, input uncertainty, and parameter uncertainty. This paper investigates two types of natural and model uncertainties in extreme rainfall–runoff events in a semi-arid region. Natural uncertainty is incorporated in the distribution function of the series of annual maximum daily rainfall, and model uncertainty is an epistemic uncertainty source. The kinematic runoff and erosion model was used for rainfall–runoff simulation. The model calibration scheme is carried out under the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation framework to quantify uncertainty in the rainfall–runoff modeling process. Uncertainties of the rainfall depths—associated with depth duration frequency curves—were estimated with the bootstrap sampling method and described by a normal probability density function. These uncertainties are presented in the rainfall–runoff modeling for investigation of uncertainty effects on extreme hydrological events discharge and can be embedded into guidelines for risk-based design and management of urban water infrastructure.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)1947-1960
    Number of pages14
    JournalNatural Hazards
    Volume78
    Issue number3
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 18 Jun 2015

    Fingerprint

    uncertainty analysis
    semiarid region
    rainfall
    extreme event
    probability density function
    modeling
    kinematics
    infrastructure
    runoff
    calibration
    erosion
    sampling
    simulation

    Keywords

    • Bootstrap sampling
    • Flood
    • GEV
    • GLUE
    • Uncertainty

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)
    • Atmospheric Science
    • Water Science and Technology

    Cite this

    Mirzaei, M., Huang, Y. F., El-Shafie, A., Chimeh, T., Lee, J., Vaizadeh, N., & Adamowski, J. (2015). Uncertainty analysis for extreme flood events in a semi-arid region. Natural Hazards, 78(3), 1947-1960. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1812-9

    Uncertainty analysis for extreme flood events in a semi-arid region. / Mirzaei, Majid; Huang, Yuk Feng; El-Shafie, Ahmed; Chimeh, Tayebeh; Lee, Juneseok; Vaizadeh, Nariman; Adamowski, Jan.

    In: Natural Hazards, Vol. 78, No. 3, 18.06.2015, p. 1947-1960.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Mirzaei, M, Huang, YF, El-Shafie, A, Chimeh, T, Lee, J, Vaizadeh, N & Adamowski, J 2015, 'Uncertainty analysis for extreme flood events in a semi-arid region', Natural Hazards, vol. 78, no. 3, pp. 1947-1960. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1812-9
    Mirzaei M, Huang YF, El-Shafie A, Chimeh T, Lee J, Vaizadeh N et al. Uncertainty analysis for extreme flood events in a semi-arid region. Natural Hazards. 2015 Jun 18;78(3):1947-1960. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1812-9
    Mirzaei, Majid ; Huang, Yuk Feng ; El-Shafie, Ahmed ; Chimeh, Tayebeh ; Lee, Juneseok ; Vaizadeh, Nariman ; Adamowski, Jan. / Uncertainty analysis for extreme flood events in a semi-arid region. In: Natural Hazards. 2015 ; Vol. 78, No. 3. pp. 1947-1960.
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