Time series analysis of gold production in Malaysia

Nora Muda, Lee Yuen Hoon

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Gold is a soft, malleable, bright yellow metallic element and unaffected by air or most reagents. It is highly valued as an asset or investment commodity and is extensively used in jewellery, industrial application, dentistry and medical applications. In Malaysia, gold mining is limited in several areas such as Pahang, Kelantan, Terengganu, Johor and Sarawak. The main purpose of this case study is to obtain a suitable model for the production of gold in Malaysia. The model can also be used to predict the data of Malaysia's gold production in the future. Box-Jenkins time series method was used to perform time series analysis with the following steps: identification, estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting. In addition, the accuracy of prediction is tested using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). From the analysis, the ARIMA (3,1,1) model was found to be the best fitted model with MAPE equals to 3.704, indicating the prediction is very accurate. Hence, this model can be used for forecasting. This study is expected to help the private and public sectors to understand the gold production scenario and later plan the gold mining activities in Malaysia.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationAIP Conference Proceedings
Pages125-131
Number of pages7
Volume1450
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2012
Event5th International Conference on Research and Education in Mathematics, ICREM5 - Bandung
Duration: 22 Oct 201124 Oct 2011

Other

Other5th International Conference on Research and Education in Mathematics, ICREM5
CityBandung
Period22/10/1124/10/11

Fingerprint

Malaysia
time series analysis
gold
forecasting
dentistry
commodities
predictions
reagents
boxes
sectors
air

Keywords

  • Box-Jenkins time series method
  • Gold Production

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Physics and Astronomy(all)

Cite this

Muda, N., & Hoon, L. Y. (2012). Time series analysis of gold production in Malaysia. In AIP Conference Proceedings (Vol. 1450, pp. 125-131) https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4724127

Time series analysis of gold production in Malaysia. / Muda, Nora; Hoon, Lee Yuen.

AIP Conference Proceedings. Vol. 1450 2012. p. 125-131.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Muda, N & Hoon, LY 2012, Time series analysis of gold production in Malaysia. in AIP Conference Proceedings. vol. 1450, pp. 125-131, 5th International Conference on Research and Education in Mathematics, ICREM5, Bandung, 22/10/11. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4724127
Muda N, Hoon LY. Time series analysis of gold production in Malaysia. In AIP Conference Proceedings. Vol. 1450. 2012. p. 125-131 https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4724127
Muda, Nora ; Hoon, Lee Yuen. / Time series analysis of gold production in Malaysia. AIP Conference Proceedings. Vol. 1450 2012. pp. 125-131
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