The step construction of penalized spline in electrical power load data

Rezzy Eko Caraka, Sakhinah Abu Bakar, Gangga Anuraga, M. A. Mauludin, Anwardi, Suwito Pomalingo, Vidila Rosalina

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Electricity is one of the most pressing needs for human life. Electricity is required not only for lighting but also to carry out activities of daily life related to activities Social and economic community. The problems is currently a limited supply of electricity resulting in an energy crisis. Electrical power is not storable therefore it is a vital need to make a good electricity demand forecast. According to this, we conducted an analysis based on power load. Given a baseline to this research, we applied penalized splines (P-splines) which led to a powerful and applicable smoothing technique. In this paper, we revealed penalized spline degree 1 (linear) with 8 knots is the best model since it has the lowest GCV (Generelized Cross Validation). This model have become a compelling model to predict electric power load evidenced by of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE=0.013) less than 10%.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1023-1031
Number of pages9
JournalTelkomnika (Telecommunication Computing Electronics and Control)
Volume17
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2019

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Splines
Electricity
Lighting
Economics

Keywords

  • Forecasting
  • Knot
  • Non-parametric
  • Penalized spline

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Electrical and Electronic Engineering

Cite this

The step construction of penalized spline in electrical power load data. / Caraka, Rezzy Eko; Abu Bakar, Sakhinah; Anuraga, Gangga; Mauludin, M. A.; Anwardi; Pomalingo, Suwito; Rosalina, Vidila.

In: Telkomnika (Telecommunication Computing Electronics and Control), Vol. 17, No. 2, 01.01.2019, p. 1023-1031.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Caraka, Rezzy Eko ; Abu Bakar, Sakhinah ; Anuraga, Gangga ; Mauludin, M. A. ; Anwardi ; Pomalingo, Suwito ; Rosalina, Vidila. / The step construction of penalized spline in electrical power load data. In: Telkomnika (Telecommunication Computing Electronics and Control). 2019 ; Vol. 17, No. 2. pp. 1023-1031.
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