Testing the impact of virus importation rates and future climate change on dengue activity in Malaysia using a mechanistic entomology and disease model

C. R. Williams, B. S. Gill, G. Mincham, A. H. Mohd Zaki, N. Abdullah, W. R W Mahiyuddin, R. Ahmad, M. K. Shahar, D. Harley, E. Viennet, Aishah Hani Azil, A. Kamaluddin

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We aimed to reparameterize and validate an existing dengue model, comprising an entomological component (CIMSiM) and a disease component (DENSiM) for application in Malaysia. With the model we aimed to measure the effect of importation rate on dengue incidence, and to determine the potential impact of moderate climate change (a 1 °C temperature increase) on dengue activity. Dengue models (comprising CIMSiM and DENSiM) were reparameterized for a simulated Malaysian village of 10 000 people, and validated against monthly dengue case data from the district of Petaling Jaya in the state of Selangor. Simulations were also performed for 2008-2012 for variable virus importation rates (ranging from 1 to 25 per week) and dengue incidence determined. Dengue incidence in the period 2010-2012 was modelled, twice, with observed daily weather and with a 1 °C increase, the latter to simulate moderate climate change. Strong concordance between simulated and observed monthly dengue cases was observed (up to r = 0·72). There was a linear relationship between importation and incidence. However, a doubling of dengue importation did not equate to a doubling of dengue activity. The largest individual dengue outbreak was observed with the lowest dengue importation rate. Moderate climate change resulted in an overall decrease in dengue activity over a 3-year period, linked to high human seroprevalence early on in the simulation. Our results suggest that moderate reductions in importation with control programmes may not reduce the frequency of large outbreaks. Moderate increases in temperature do not necessarily lead to greater dengue incidence.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2856-2864
Number of pages9
JournalEpidemiology and Infection
Volume143
Issue number13
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 7 Oct 2015

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Entomology
Dengue
Climate Change
Malaysia
Viruses
Incidence
Disease Outbreaks
Temperature
Seroepidemiologic Studies
Weather

Keywords

  • Arboviruses
  • dengue fever
  • epidemiology
  • estimating
  • modelling
  • prevalence of disease

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Infectious Diseases
  • Epidemiology

Cite this

Williams, C. R., Gill, B. S., Mincham, G., Mohd Zaki, A. H., Abdullah, N., Mahiyuddin, W. R. W., ... Kamaluddin, A. (2015). Testing the impact of virus importation rates and future climate change on dengue activity in Malaysia using a mechanistic entomology and disease model. Epidemiology and Infection, 143(13), 2856-2864. https://doi.org/10.1017/S095026881400380X

Testing the impact of virus importation rates and future climate change on dengue activity in Malaysia using a mechanistic entomology and disease model. / Williams, C. R.; Gill, B. S.; Mincham, G.; Mohd Zaki, A. H.; Abdullah, N.; Mahiyuddin, W. R W; Ahmad, R.; Shahar, M. K.; Harley, D.; Viennet, E.; Azil, Aishah Hani; Kamaluddin, A.

In: Epidemiology and Infection, Vol. 143, No. 13, 07.10.2015, p. 2856-2864.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Williams, CR, Gill, BS, Mincham, G, Mohd Zaki, AH, Abdullah, N, Mahiyuddin, WRW, Ahmad, R, Shahar, MK, Harley, D, Viennet, E, Azil, AH & Kamaluddin, A 2015, 'Testing the impact of virus importation rates and future climate change on dengue activity in Malaysia using a mechanistic entomology and disease model', Epidemiology and Infection, vol. 143, no. 13, pp. 2856-2864. https://doi.org/10.1017/S095026881400380X
Williams, C. R. ; Gill, B. S. ; Mincham, G. ; Mohd Zaki, A. H. ; Abdullah, N. ; Mahiyuddin, W. R W ; Ahmad, R. ; Shahar, M. K. ; Harley, D. ; Viennet, E. ; Azil, Aishah Hani ; Kamaluddin, A. / Testing the impact of virus importation rates and future climate change on dengue activity in Malaysia using a mechanistic entomology and disease model. In: Epidemiology and Infection. 2015 ; Vol. 143, No. 13. pp. 2856-2864.
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