Structural modeling of age specific fertility curves in Peninsular Malaysia: An approach of Lee Carter method

Hazlenah Hanafiah, Abdul Aziz Jemain

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

In recent years, the study of fertility has been getting a lot of attention among research abroad following fear of deterioration of fertility led by the rapid economy development. Hence, this study examines the feasibility of developing fertility forecasts based on age structure. Lee Carter model (1992) is applied in this study as it is an established and widely used model in analysing demographic aspects. A singular value decomposition approach is incorporated with an ARIMA model to estimate age specific fertility rates in Peninsular Malaysia over the period 1958-2007. Residual plots is used to measure the goodness of fit of the model. Fertility index forecast using random walk drift is then utilised to predict the future age specific fertility. Results indicate that the proposed model provides a relatively good and reasonable data fitting. In addition, there is an apparent and continuous decline in age specific fertility curves in the next 10 years, particularly among mothers' in their early 20's and 40's. The study on the fertility is vital in order to maintain a balance between the population growth and the provision of facilities related resources.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationAIP Conference Proceedings
Pages1062-1068
Number of pages7
Volume1571
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2013
Event2013 UKM Faculty of Science and Technology Post-Graduate Colloquium - Selangor
Duration: 3 Jul 20134 Jul 2013

Other

Other2013 UKM Faculty of Science and Technology Post-Graduate Colloquium
CitySelangor
Period3/7/134/7/13

Fingerprint

fertility
Malaysia
curves
forecasting
fear
goodness of fit
economy
deterioration
random walk
resources
plots
decomposition

Keywords

  • Age specific fertility forecasting
  • Lee Carter model
  • Random walk drift

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Physics and Astronomy(all)

Cite this

Hanafiah, H., & Jemain, A. A. (2013). Structural modeling of age specific fertility curves in Peninsular Malaysia: An approach of Lee Carter method. In AIP Conference Proceedings (Vol. 1571, pp. 1062-1068) https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4858794

Structural modeling of age specific fertility curves in Peninsular Malaysia : An approach of Lee Carter method. / Hanafiah, Hazlenah; Jemain, Abdul Aziz.

AIP Conference Proceedings. Vol. 1571 2013. p. 1062-1068.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Hanafiah, H & Jemain, AA 2013, Structural modeling of age specific fertility curves in Peninsular Malaysia: An approach of Lee Carter method. in AIP Conference Proceedings. vol. 1571, pp. 1062-1068, 2013 UKM Faculty of Science and Technology Post-Graduate Colloquium, Selangor, 3/7/13. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4858794
Hanafiah, Hazlenah ; Jemain, Abdul Aziz. / Structural modeling of age specific fertility curves in Peninsular Malaysia : An approach of Lee Carter method. AIP Conference Proceedings. Vol. 1571 2013. pp. 1062-1068
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