Skill evaluation of the CanCM4 and its MOS for seasonal rainfall forecast in Malaysia during the early and late winter monsoon periods

Ester Salimun, Fredolin Tangang @ Tajudin Mahmud, Ju Neng Liew, Francis W. Zwiers, William J. Merryfield

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This study evaluates the forecast skill of the fourth version of the Canadian coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (CanCM4) and its model output statistics (MOS) to forecast the seasonal rainfall in Malaysia, particularly during early (October-November-December) and late (January-February-March) winter monsoon periods. CanCM4 is the latest component of the Canadian Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction System (CanSIPS), which is a multi-seasonal climate prediction system developed particularly for Canada but applicable globally. Generally, CanCM4's skill in reproducing the climatology during winter is not as good as in other seasons because of the model's inability to simulate the regional synoptic circulations over the western Maritime Continent. In particular, the model fails to forecast the cold surges and Borneo vortex circulations that play critical roles in moisture horizontal advection. Moreover, its forecast skill during the early winter monsoon period is poorer than during the late period. Interestingly, forecast skill is enhanced when MOS models are applied as the MOS utilizes the predictive signals in the quasi-global predictors from the CanCM4 forecast system. The predictability can be traced to the conventional El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and ENSO Modoki signals that are present in the CanCM4 forecast MOS predictor fields. The quasi-global sea-surface temperature and quasi-global sea-level pressure fields are found to be the most useful predictors. Interestingly, CanCM4 forecast signals associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole also contribute to the skill. Skill enhancement is particularly significant for northern Borneo during early monsoon periods in medium- and long-lead forecasts when the CanCM4 has minimal direct skill in the region.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)439-454
Number of pages16
JournalInternational Journal of Climatology
Volume36
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2016

Fingerprint

monsoon
rainfall
winter
Southern Oscillation
forecast
evaluation
statistics
climate prediction
pressure field
sea level pressure
climatology
vortex
general circulation model
advection
sea surface temperature
moisture
atmosphere
ocean
prediction

Keywords

  • CanCM4
  • ENSO
  • ENSO Modoki
  • Malaysian rainfall
  • Model output statistics
  • Monsoon

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Atmospheric Science

Cite this

Skill evaluation of the CanCM4 and its MOS for seasonal rainfall forecast in Malaysia during the early and late winter monsoon periods. / Salimun, Ester; Tangang @ Tajudin Mahmud, Fredolin; Liew, Ju Neng; Zwiers, Francis W.; Merryfield, William J.

In: International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 36, No. 1, 01.01.2016, p. 439-454.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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