Short-term forecasting ionospheric delay over UKM, Malaysia, using the Holt-Winter method

N. A. Elmunim, Mardina Abdullah, Alina Marie Hasbi, S. A. Bahari

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

8 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The ionospheric delay is the main factor that causes the errors in the navigation of the global positioning system (GPS). GPS satellite signals propagate through the ionosphere before reaching the GPS receiver on earth. Therefore, ionosphere forecasting studies play an important role in the reduction of this positioning error. In this work, a statistical method for forecasting the ionospheric delay is presented using GPS Ionospheric Scintillation and TEC Monitor (GISTM) over Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, (UKM) station, covering a period from June to December 2010. The Holt-Winter statistical method was chosen to forecast the ionospheric delay as it is suitable for forecasting time series with seasonal patterns and repeated trends. Based on the delay forecasted at the period chosen, the peak was obtained during the summer season. The comparison between the actual and forecast delay gave a relatively low amount of error. This method has proven to be effective in forecasting the ionospheric delay with an accuracy of 78-96%.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationInternational Conference on Space Science and Communication, IconSpace
Pages106-109
Number of pages4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2013
Event2013 3rd IEEE International Conference on Space Science and Communication, IconSpace 2013 - Melaka
Duration: 1 Jul 20133 Jul 2013

Other

Other2013 3rd IEEE International Conference on Space Science and Communication, IconSpace 2013
CityMelaka
Period1/7/133/7/13

Fingerprint

Malaysia
Global positioning system
Ionosphere
statistical method
Statistical methods
Scintillation
time series
Time series
Navigation
recipient
Earth (planet)
Satellites
cause
trend

Keywords

  • GPS
  • Holt-Winter
  • Ionospheric Delay
  • Total Electron Content

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Computer Networks and Communications
  • Aerospace Engineering
  • Electrical and Electronic Engineering
  • Communication

Cite this

Elmunim, N. A., Abdullah, M., Hasbi, A. M., & Bahari, S. A. (2013). Short-term forecasting ionospheric delay over UKM, Malaysia, using the Holt-Winter method. In International Conference on Space Science and Communication, IconSpace (pp. 106-109). [6599443] https://doi.org/10.1109/IconSpace.2013.6599443

Short-term forecasting ionospheric delay over UKM, Malaysia, using the Holt-Winter method. / Elmunim, N. A.; Abdullah, Mardina; Hasbi, Alina Marie; Bahari, S. A.

International Conference on Space Science and Communication, IconSpace. 2013. p. 106-109 6599443.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Elmunim, NA, Abdullah, M, Hasbi, AM & Bahari, SA 2013, Short-term forecasting ionospheric delay over UKM, Malaysia, using the Holt-Winter method. in International Conference on Space Science and Communication, IconSpace., 6599443, pp. 106-109, 2013 3rd IEEE International Conference on Space Science and Communication, IconSpace 2013, Melaka, 1/7/13. https://doi.org/10.1109/IconSpace.2013.6599443
Elmunim NA, Abdullah M, Hasbi AM, Bahari SA. Short-term forecasting ionospheric delay over UKM, Malaysia, using the Holt-Winter method. In International Conference on Space Science and Communication, IconSpace. 2013. p. 106-109. 6599443 https://doi.org/10.1109/IconSpace.2013.6599443
Elmunim, N. A. ; Abdullah, Mardina ; Hasbi, Alina Marie ; Bahari, S. A. / Short-term forecasting ionospheric delay over UKM, Malaysia, using the Holt-Winter method. International Conference on Space Science and Communication, IconSpace. 2013. pp. 106-109
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