Robust model for weather-related contingency probability estimation used for risk based security assessment

N. Aminudin, M. Marsadek, N. M. Ramli, T. K A Rahman, N. Razali

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Weather is one of major factors that profoundly has an impact to the performance of a transmission line. Advanced knowledge and accurate estimation of the failure rate related to weather provides better overview on the probability of transmission line outage. Precise probability estimation is vital in risk based security assessment so as to reflect more accurate risk index value that enable correct judgments on power system security level. This paper introduced two approaches in the construction of an improved model to estimate the failure rate of a transmission line considering lightning and rain weather. The first approach is based on the identification of the best linear model that has the least error and significant correlation between the independent and dependent variables. The second focused on the robust estimator that has resistance to the presence of outliers in solving the multiple linear regression. In realizing the effectiveness of the proposed method, the results are compared with the traditional Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method. The results revealed that the proposed method using MM-estimator shows a significant improvement over OLS performance.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)854-862
Number of pages9
JournalInternational Review on Modelling and Simulations
Volume7
Issue number5
Publication statusPublished - 1 Oct 2014
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

Transmission Line
Weather
Electric lines
Ordinary Least Squares
Failure Rate
Lightning
Multiple Linear Regression
Robust Estimators
Least Square Method
Security systems
Linear regression
Outages
Power System
Outlier
Rain
Linear Model
Identification (control systems)
Model
Estimator
Dependent

Keywords

  • Contingency probability
  • Data pooling
  • Failure rate model
  • Risk based security assessment
  • Robust model

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Modelling and Simulation
  • Electrical and Electronic Engineering
  • Mechanical Engineering
  • Chemical Engineering(all)

Cite this

Robust model for weather-related contingency probability estimation used for risk based security assessment. / Aminudin, N.; Marsadek, M.; Ramli, N. M.; Rahman, T. K A; Razali, N.

In: International Review on Modelling and Simulations, Vol. 7, No. 5, 01.10.2014, p. 854-862.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Aminudin, N. ; Marsadek, M. ; Ramli, N. M. ; Rahman, T. K A ; Razali, N. / Robust model for weather-related contingency probability estimation used for risk based security assessment. In: International Review on Modelling and Simulations. 2014 ; Vol. 7, No. 5. pp. 854-862.
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