Projection of storm surge climate extreme over sunda shelf based on IPCC SRES A2 scenario

Wah Shin How, Halimatun Muhamad, Fredolin Tangang @ Tajudin Mahmud, Ju Neng Liew

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The historical and future storm surge climate over the South China Sea Sunda Shelf was derived using a barotropic two dimensional model. The atmospheric forcings were obtained from the UKMO regional climate modeling system, PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies), forced at the boundary by the ECHAM4 simulation output under the SRES A2 emission experiment. In general, the model simulates historical sea surface elevation characteristics satisfactory although there is a substantial underestimation for the sea level elevation at local scales. The climate change analysis suggests that the storm surge extreme over the Sunda Shelf is expected to increase along the coastal area of the Gulf of Thailand and east coast of Peninsular Malaysia in the future (2071-2100). The projected increment is averagely ~9% over the Sunda Shelf region by the end of the 21 st century corresponding to about 5% stronger wind speed as compare to the baseline period of 1961-1990.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1411-1422
Number of pages12
JournalSains Malaysiana
Volume41
Issue number11
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2012

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storm surge
regional climate
atmospheric forcing
shelf sea
climate
sea surface
climate modeling
wind velocity
sea level
climate change
coast
simulation
experiment
coastal area
gulf
analysis

Keywords

  • Climate change
  • Princeton Ocean Model
  • Sea level elevation
  • Storm surge
  • Sunda Shelf

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General

Cite this

Projection of storm surge climate extreme over sunda shelf based on IPCC SRES A2 scenario. / How, Wah Shin; Muhamad, Halimatun; Tangang @ Tajudin Mahmud, Fredolin; Liew, Ju Neng.

In: Sains Malaysiana, Vol. 41, No. 11, 11.2012, p. 1411-1422.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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