Sur le potentiel des modèles à modèles impulsions rectangulaires de Bartlett Lewis à simuler les pŕcipitations de Malaisie péninsulaire

Translated title of the contribution: On the potential of Bartlett Lewis rectangular pulse models for simulating rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia

Ibrahim Suliman Hanaish, Kamarulzaman Ibrahim, Abdul Aziz Jemain

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

The applicability of two versions of the Bartlett Lewis rectangular pulse model, the original and the modified model, is discussed for describing the temporal and spatial variation of rainfall patterns observed at 15 raingauge stations in Peninsular Malaysia over the period 1971-2008; 17 different sets of moment combinations are fitted to these models based on the generalized method of moments approach. The common statistics included in all sets are the mean, variance, lag-1 autocorrelation and the probability of dry based on the hourly rainfall data. The analysis was carried out on hourly rainfall data from all 15 stations for all months of the year. Two stations, Petaling Jaya and Kemaman, located on the west and east coasts of the Peninsula, respectively, are considered for illustration of the results, taking the months of July and November, which correspond to the driest and wettest months, corresponding to the southwest monsoon (May-August) and northeast monsoon (November-February), respectively. The best moment combination found for the illustrative results is based on the common statistics, as well as the mean and variance based on 24-h aggregated rainfall data, the inclusion of which successfully improved the model performance; the errors were significantly reduced. It was also found that the performance of the fitted models based on the mean absolute deviate error varies according to the type of Bartlett Lewis model applied: errors are much smaller for the fitted model based on the modified model as compared to the original model. In addition, the fitted statistics: mean, lag-1 autocorrelation and probability of dry are quite well fitted for several aggregated time scales; however, the variances are underestimated in both models for all aggregated time scales, particularly in the case of the original model. The results of extreme value analysis indicate that the modified model failed to reproduce the annual hourly and daily rainfall extremes satisfactorily.

Original languageFrench
Pages (from-to)1690-1703
Number of pages14
JournalHydrological Sciences Journal
Volume58
Issue number8
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2013

Fingerprint

rainfall
autocorrelation
monsoon
timescale
raingauge
temporal variation
spatial variation
coast
statistics
station

Keywords

  • Bartlett Lewis rectangular pulse rainfall models
  • spatio-temporal rainfall pattern

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Water Science and Technology

Cite this

@article{48ef5dfbb41b43d48a63087dd6b71b4d,
title = "Sur le potentiel des mod{\`e}les {\`a} mod{\`e}les impulsions rectangulaires de Bartlett Lewis {\`a} simuler les pŕcipitations de Malaisie p{\'e}ninsulaire",
abstract = "The applicability of two versions of the Bartlett Lewis rectangular pulse model, the original and the modified model, is discussed for describing the temporal and spatial variation of rainfall patterns observed at 15 raingauge stations in Peninsular Malaysia over the period 1971-2008; 17 different sets of moment combinations are fitted to these models based on the generalized method of moments approach. The common statistics included in all sets are the mean, variance, lag-1 autocorrelation and the probability of dry based on the hourly rainfall data. The analysis was carried out on hourly rainfall data from all 15 stations for all months of the year. Two stations, Petaling Jaya and Kemaman, located on the west and east coasts of the Peninsula, respectively, are considered for illustration of the results, taking the months of July and November, which correspond to the driest and wettest months, corresponding to the southwest monsoon (May-August) and northeast monsoon (November-February), respectively. The best moment combination found for the illustrative results is based on the common statistics, as well as the mean and variance based on 24-h aggregated rainfall data, the inclusion of which successfully improved the model performance; the errors were significantly reduced. It was also found that the performance of the fitted models based on the mean absolute deviate error varies according to the type of Bartlett Lewis model applied: errors are much smaller for the fitted model based on the modified model as compared to the original model. In addition, the fitted statistics: mean, lag-1 autocorrelation and probability of dry are quite well fitted for several aggregated time scales; however, the variances are underestimated in both models for all aggregated time scales, particularly in the case of the original model. The results of extreme value analysis indicate that the modified model failed to reproduce the annual hourly and daily rainfall extremes satisfactorily.",
keywords = "Bartlett Lewis rectangular pulse rainfall models, spatio-temporal rainfall pattern",
author = "Hanaish, {Ibrahim Suliman} and Kamarulzaman Ibrahim and Jemain, {Abdul Aziz}",
year = "2013",
month = "11",
doi = "10.1080/02626667.2013.838322",
language = "French",
volume = "58",
pages = "1690--1703",
journal = "Hydrological Sciences Journal",
issn = "0262-6667",
publisher = "Taylor and Francis Ltd.",
number = "8",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Sur le potentiel des modèles à modèles impulsions rectangulaires de Bartlett Lewis à simuler les pŕcipitations de Malaisie péninsulaire

AU - Hanaish, Ibrahim Suliman

AU - Ibrahim, Kamarulzaman

AU - Jemain, Abdul Aziz

PY - 2013/11

Y1 - 2013/11

N2 - The applicability of two versions of the Bartlett Lewis rectangular pulse model, the original and the modified model, is discussed for describing the temporal and spatial variation of rainfall patterns observed at 15 raingauge stations in Peninsular Malaysia over the period 1971-2008; 17 different sets of moment combinations are fitted to these models based on the generalized method of moments approach. The common statistics included in all sets are the mean, variance, lag-1 autocorrelation and the probability of dry based on the hourly rainfall data. The analysis was carried out on hourly rainfall data from all 15 stations for all months of the year. Two stations, Petaling Jaya and Kemaman, located on the west and east coasts of the Peninsula, respectively, are considered for illustration of the results, taking the months of July and November, which correspond to the driest and wettest months, corresponding to the southwest monsoon (May-August) and northeast monsoon (November-February), respectively. The best moment combination found for the illustrative results is based on the common statistics, as well as the mean and variance based on 24-h aggregated rainfall data, the inclusion of which successfully improved the model performance; the errors were significantly reduced. It was also found that the performance of the fitted models based on the mean absolute deviate error varies according to the type of Bartlett Lewis model applied: errors are much smaller for the fitted model based on the modified model as compared to the original model. In addition, the fitted statistics: mean, lag-1 autocorrelation and probability of dry are quite well fitted for several aggregated time scales; however, the variances are underestimated in both models for all aggregated time scales, particularly in the case of the original model. The results of extreme value analysis indicate that the modified model failed to reproduce the annual hourly and daily rainfall extremes satisfactorily.

AB - The applicability of two versions of the Bartlett Lewis rectangular pulse model, the original and the modified model, is discussed for describing the temporal and spatial variation of rainfall patterns observed at 15 raingauge stations in Peninsular Malaysia over the period 1971-2008; 17 different sets of moment combinations are fitted to these models based on the generalized method of moments approach. The common statistics included in all sets are the mean, variance, lag-1 autocorrelation and the probability of dry based on the hourly rainfall data. The analysis was carried out on hourly rainfall data from all 15 stations for all months of the year. Two stations, Petaling Jaya and Kemaman, located on the west and east coasts of the Peninsula, respectively, are considered for illustration of the results, taking the months of July and November, which correspond to the driest and wettest months, corresponding to the southwest monsoon (May-August) and northeast monsoon (November-February), respectively. The best moment combination found for the illustrative results is based on the common statistics, as well as the mean and variance based on 24-h aggregated rainfall data, the inclusion of which successfully improved the model performance; the errors were significantly reduced. It was also found that the performance of the fitted models based on the mean absolute deviate error varies according to the type of Bartlett Lewis model applied: errors are much smaller for the fitted model based on the modified model as compared to the original model. In addition, the fitted statistics: mean, lag-1 autocorrelation and probability of dry are quite well fitted for several aggregated time scales; however, the variances are underestimated in both models for all aggregated time scales, particularly in the case of the original model. The results of extreme value analysis indicate that the modified model failed to reproduce the annual hourly and daily rainfall extremes satisfactorily.

KW - Bartlett Lewis rectangular pulse rainfall models

KW - spatio-temporal rainfall pattern

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84887031405&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84887031405&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1080/02626667.2013.838322

DO - 10.1080/02626667.2013.838322

M3 - Article

VL - 58

SP - 1690

EP - 1703

JO - Hydrological Sciences Journal

JF - Hydrological Sciences Journal

SN - 0262-6667

IS - 8

ER -