Mortality, morbidity, and hospitalisations due to influenza lower respiratory tract infections, 2017

an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

GBD 2017 Influenza Collaborators

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

8 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background: Although the burden of influenza is often discussed in the context of historical pandemics and the threat of future pandemics, every year a substantial burden of lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) and other respiratory conditions (like chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) are attributable to seasonal influenza. The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2017 is a systematic scientific effort to quantify the health loss associated with a comprehensive set of diseases and disabilities. In this Article, we focus on LRTIs that can be attributed to influenza. Methods: We modelled the LRTI incidence, hospitalisations, and mortality attributable to influenza for every country and selected subnational locations by age and year from 1990 to 2017 as part of GBD 2017. We used a counterfactual approach that first estimated the LRTI incidence, hospitalisations, and mortality and then attributed a fraction of those outcomes to influenza. Findings: Influenza LRTI was responsible for an estimated 145 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 99 000–200 000) deaths among all ages in 2017. The influenza LRTI mortality rate was highest among adults older than 70 years (16·4 deaths per 100 000 [95% UI 11·6–21·9]), and the highest rate among all ages was in eastern Europe (5·2 per 100 000 population [95% UI 3·5–7·2]). We estimated that influenza LRTIs accounted for 9 459 000 (95% UI 3 709 000–22 935 000) hospitalisations due to LRTIs and 81 536 000 hospital days (24 330 000–259 851 000). We estimated that 11·5% (95% UI 10·0–12·9) of LRTI episodes were attributable to influenza, corresponding to 54 481 000 (38 465 000–73 864 000) episodes and 8 172 000 severe episodes (5 000 000–13 296 000). Interpretation: This comprehensive assessment of the burden of influenza LRTIs shows the substantial annual effect of influenza on global health. Although preparedness planning will be important for potential pandemics, health loss due to seasonal influenza LRTIs should not be overlooked, and vaccine use should be considered. Efforts to improve influenza prevention measures are needed. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)69-89
Number of pages21
JournalThe Lancet Respiratory Medicine
Volume7
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2019

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Respiratory Tract Infections
Human Influenza
Hospitalization
Morbidity
Mortality
Uncertainty
Pandemics
Global Burden of Disease
Eastern Europe
Incidence
Health
Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease
Vaccines

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine

Cite this

Mortality, morbidity, and hospitalisations due to influenza lower respiratory tract infections, 2017 : an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. / GBD 2017 Influenza Collaborators.

In: The Lancet Respiratory Medicine, Vol. 7, No. 1, 01.01.2019, p. 69-89.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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title = "Mortality, morbidity, and hospitalisations due to influenza lower respiratory tract infections, 2017: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017",
abstract = "Background: Although the burden of influenza is often discussed in the context of historical pandemics and the threat of future pandemics, every year a substantial burden of lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) and other respiratory conditions (like chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) are attributable to seasonal influenza. The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2017 is a systematic scientific effort to quantify the health loss associated with a comprehensive set of diseases and disabilities. In this Article, we focus on LRTIs that can be attributed to influenza. Methods: We modelled the LRTI incidence, hospitalisations, and mortality attributable to influenza for every country and selected subnational locations by age and year from 1990 to 2017 as part of GBD 2017. We used a counterfactual approach that first estimated the LRTI incidence, hospitalisations, and mortality and then attributed a fraction of those outcomes to influenza. Findings: Influenza LRTI was responsible for an estimated 145 000 (95{\%} uncertainty interval [UI] 99 000–200 000) deaths among all ages in 2017. The influenza LRTI mortality rate was highest among adults older than 70 years (16·4 deaths per 100 000 [95{\%} UI 11·6–21·9]), and the highest rate among all ages was in eastern Europe (5·2 per 100 000 population [95{\%} UI 3·5–7·2]). We estimated that influenza LRTIs accounted for 9 459 000 (95{\%} UI 3 709 000–22 935 000) hospitalisations due to LRTIs and 81 536 000 hospital days (24 330 000–259 851 000). We estimated that 11·5{\%} (95{\%} UI 10·0–12·9) of LRTI episodes were attributable to influenza, corresponding to 54 481 000 (38 465 000–73 864 000) episodes and 8 172 000 severe episodes (5 000 000–13 296 000). Interpretation: This comprehensive assessment of the burden of influenza LRTIs shows the substantial annual effect of influenza on global health. Although preparedness planning will be important for potential pandemics, health loss due to seasonal influenza LRTIs should not be overlooked, and vaccine use should be considered. Efforts to improve influenza prevention measures are needed. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.",
author = "{GBD 2017 Influenza Collaborators} and Troeger, {Christopher E.} and Blacker, {Brigette F.} and Khalil, {Ibrahim A.} and Zimsen, {Stephanie R.M.} and Albertson, {Samuel B.} and Degu Abate and Jemal Abdela and Adhikari, {Tara Ballav} and Aghayan, {Sargis Aghasi} and Sutapa Agrawal and Alireza Ahmadi and Aichour, {Amani Nidhal} and Ibtihel Aichour and Aichour, {Miloud Taki Eddine} and Ayman Al-Eyadhy and Al-Raddadi, {Rajaa M.} and Fares Alahdab and Alene, {Kefyalew Addis} and {Syed Junid}, {Syed Mohamed Al-Junid} and Nelson Alvis-Guzman and Anber, {Nahla Hamed} and Mina Anjomshoa and Antonio, {Carl Abelardo T.} and Olatunde Aremu and Atalay, {Hagos Tasew} and Suleman Atique and Attia, {Engi F.} and Avokpaho, {Euripide F.G.A.} and Ashish Awasthi and Arefeh Babazadeh and Hamid Badali and Alaa Badawi and Banoub, {Joseph Adel Mattar} and Aleksandra Barac and Quique Bassat and Neeraj Bedi and Belachew, {Abate Bekele} and Bennett, {Derrick A.} and Krittika Bhattacharyya and Bhutta, {Zulfiqar A.} and Ali Bijani and F{\'e}lix Carvalho and Casta{\~n}eda-Orjuela, {Carlos A.} and Christopher, {Devasahayam J.} and Lalit Dandona and Rakhi Dandona and Dang, {Anh Kim} and Ahmad Daryani and Degefa, {Meaza Girma} and Demeke, {Feleke Mekonnen}",
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T1 - Mortality, morbidity, and hospitalisations due to influenza lower respiratory tract infections, 2017

T2 - an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

AU - GBD 2017 Influenza Collaborators

AU - Troeger, Christopher E.

AU - Blacker, Brigette F.

AU - Khalil, Ibrahim A.

AU - Zimsen, Stephanie R.M.

AU - Albertson, Samuel B.

AU - Abate, Degu

AU - Abdela, Jemal

AU - Adhikari, Tara Ballav

AU - Aghayan, Sargis Aghasi

AU - Agrawal, Sutapa

AU - Ahmadi, Alireza

AU - Aichour, Amani Nidhal

AU - Aichour, Ibtihel

AU - Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine

AU - Al-Eyadhy, Ayman

AU - Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M.

AU - Alahdab, Fares

AU - Alene, Kefyalew Addis

AU - Syed Junid, Syed Mohamed Al-Junid

AU - Alvis-Guzman, Nelson

AU - Anber, Nahla Hamed

AU - Anjomshoa, Mina

AU - Antonio, Carl Abelardo T.

AU - Aremu, Olatunde

AU - Atalay, Hagos Tasew

AU - Atique, Suleman

AU - Attia, Engi F.

AU - Avokpaho, Euripide F.G.A.

AU - Awasthi, Ashish

AU - Babazadeh, Arefeh

AU - Badali, Hamid

AU - Badawi, Alaa

AU - Banoub, Joseph Adel Mattar

AU - Barac, Aleksandra

AU - Bassat, Quique

AU - Bedi, Neeraj

AU - Belachew, Abate Bekele

AU - Bennett, Derrick A.

AU - Bhattacharyya, Krittika

AU - Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.

AU - Bijani, Ali

AU - Carvalho, Félix

AU - Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A.

AU - Christopher, Devasahayam J.

AU - Dandona, Lalit

AU - Dandona, Rakhi

AU - Dang, Anh Kim

AU - Daryani, Ahmad

AU - Degefa, Meaza Girma

AU - Demeke, Feleke Mekonnen

PY - 2019/1/1

Y1 - 2019/1/1

N2 - Background: Although the burden of influenza is often discussed in the context of historical pandemics and the threat of future pandemics, every year a substantial burden of lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) and other respiratory conditions (like chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) are attributable to seasonal influenza. The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2017 is a systematic scientific effort to quantify the health loss associated with a comprehensive set of diseases and disabilities. In this Article, we focus on LRTIs that can be attributed to influenza. Methods: We modelled the LRTI incidence, hospitalisations, and mortality attributable to influenza for every country and selected subnational locations by age and year from 1990 to 2017 as part of GBD 2017. We used a counterfactual approach that first estimated the LRTI incidence, hospitalisations, and mortality and then attributed a fraction of those outcomes to influenza. Findings: Influenza LRTI was responsible for an estimated 145 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 99 000–200 000) deaths among all ages in 2017. The influenza LRTI mortality rate was highest among adults older than 70 years (16·4 deaths per 100 000 [95% UI 11·6–21·9]), and the highest rate among all ages was in eastern Europe (5·2 per 100 000 population [95% UI 3·5–7·2]). We estimated that influenza LRTIs accounted for 9 459 000 (95% UI 3 709 000–22 935 000) hospitalisations due to LRTIs and 81 536 000 hospital days (24 330 000–259 851 000). We estimated that 11·5% (95% UI 10·0–12·9) of LRTI episodes were attributable to influenza, corresponding to 54 481 000 (38 465 000–73 864 000) episodes and 8 172 000 severe episodes (5 000 000–13 296 000). Interpretation: This comprehensive assessment of the burden of influenza LRTIs shows the substantial annual effect of influenza on global health. Although preparedness planning will be important for potential pandemics, health loss due to seasonal influenza LRTIs should not be overlooked, and vaccine use should be considered. Efforts to improve influenza prevention measures are needed. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

AB - Background: Although the burden of influenza is often discussed in the context of historical pandemics and the threat of future pandemics, every year a substantial burden of lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) and other respiratory conditions (like chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) are attributable to seasonal influenza. The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2017 is a systematic scientific effort to quantify the health loss associated with a comprehensive set of diseases and disabilities. In this Article, we focus on LRTIs that can be attributed to influenza. Methods: We modelled the LRTI incidence, hospitalisations, and mortality attributable to influenza for every country and selected subnational locations by age and year from 1990 to 2017 as part of GBD 2017. We used a counterfactual approach that first estimated the LRTI incidence, hospitalisations, and mortality and then attributed a fraction of those outcomes to influenza. Findings: Influenza LRTI was responsible for an estimated 145 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 99 000–200 000) deaths among all ages in 2017. The influenza LRTI mortality rate was highest among adults older than 70 years (16·4 deaths per 100 000 [95% UI 11·6–21·9]), and the highest rate among all ages was in eastern Europe (5·2 per 100 000 population [95% UI 3·5–7·2]). We estimated that influenza LRTIs accounted for 9 459 000 (95% UI 3 709 000–22 935 000) hospitalisations due to LRTIs and 81 536 000 hospital days (24 330 000–259 851 000). We estimated that 11·5% (95% UI 10·0–12·9) of LRTI episodes were attributable to influenza, corresponding to 54 481 000 (38 465 000–73 864 000) episodes and 8 172 000 severe episodes (5 000 000–13 296 000). Interpretation: This comprehensive assessment of the burden of influenza LRTIs shows the substantial annual effect of influenza on global health. Although preparedness planning will be important for potential pandemics, health loss due to seasonal influenza LRTIs should not be overlooked, and vaccine use should be considered. Efforts to improve influenza prevention measures are needed. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

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