Modelling of extreme rainfall events in Peninsular Malaysia based on annual maximum and partial duration series

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

In this study, two series of data for extreme rainfall events are generated based on Annual Maximum and Partial Duration Methods, derived from 102 rain-gauge stations in Peninsular from 1982-2012. To determine the optimal threshold for each station, several requirements must be satisfied and Adapted Hill estimator is employed for this purpose. A semi-parametric bootstrap is then used to estimate the mean square error (MSE) of the estimator at each threshold and the optimal threshold is selected based on the smallest MSE. The mean annual frequency is also checked to ensure that it lies in the range of one to five and the resulting data is also de-clustered to ensure independence. The two data series are then fitted to Generalized Extreme Value and Generalized Pareto distributions for annual maximum and partial duration series, respectively. The parameter estimation methods used are the Maximum Likelihood and the L-moment methods. Two goodness of fit tests are then used to evaluate the best-fitted distribution. The results showed that the Partial Duration series with Generalized Pareto distribution and Maximum Likelihood parameter estimation provides the best representation for extreme rainfall events in Peninsular Malaysia for majority of the stations studied. Based on these findings, several return values are also derived and spatial mapping are constructed to identify the distribution characteristic of extreme rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2nd ISM International Statistical Conference 2014, ISM 2014
Subtitle of host publicationEmpowering the Applications of Statistical and Mathematical Sciences
EditorsNor Aida Zuraimi Md Noar, Roslinazairimah Zakaria, Wan Nur Syahidah Wan Yusoff, Mohd Sham Mohamad, Mohd Rashid Ab Hamid
PublisherAmerican Institute of Physics Inc.
Pages312-320
Number of pages9
ISBN (Electronic)9780735412811
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2015
Event2nd ISM International Statistical Conference 2014: Empowering the Applications of Statistical and Mathematical Sciences, ISM 2014 - Kuantan, Pahang, Malaysia
Duration: 12 Aug 201414 Aug 2014

Publication series

NameAIP Conference Proceedings
Volume1643
ISSN (Print)0094-243X
ISSN (Electronic)1551-7616

Other

Other2nd ISM International Statistical Conference 2014: Empowering the Applications of Statistical and Mathematical Sciences, ISM 2014
CountryMalaysia
CityKuantan, Pahang
Period12/8/1414/8/14

Fingerprint

Malaysia
stations
estimators
thresholds
rain gages
goodness of fit
moments
requirements
estimates

Keywords

  • Adapted Hill method
  • Annual Maximum
  • Bootstrap
  • Partial Duration

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Physics and Astronomy(all)

Cite this

Wan Zin @ Wan Ibrahim, W. Z., Shinyie, W. L., & Jemain, A. A. (2015). Modelling of extreme rainfall events in Peninsular Malaysia based on annual maximum and partial duration series. In N. A. Z. M. Noar, R. Zakaria, W. N. S. W. Yusoff, M. S. Mohamad, & M. R. A. Hamid (Eds.), 2nd ISM International Statistical Conference 2014, ISM 2014: Empowering the Applications of Statistical and Mathematical Sciences (pp. 312-320). (AIP Conference Proceedings; Vol. 1643). American Institute of Physics Inc.. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4907461

Modelling of extreme rainfall events in Peninsular Malaysia based on annual maximum and partial duration series. / Wan Zin @ Wan Ibrahim, Wan Zawiah; Shinyie, Wendy Ling; Jemain, Abdul Aziz.

2nd ISM International Statistical Conference 2014, ISM 2014: Empowering the Applications of Statistical and Mathematical Sciences. ed. / Nor Aida Zuraimi Md Noar; Roslinazairimah Zakaria; Wan Nur Syahidah Wan Yusoff; Mohd Sham Mohamad; Mohd Rashid Ab Hamid. American Institute of Physics Inc., 2015. p. 312-320 (AIP Conference Proceedings; Vol. 1643).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Wan Zin @ Wan Ibrahim, WZ, Shinyie, WL & Jemain, AA 2015, Modelling of extreme rainfall events in Peninsular Malaysia based on annual maximum and partial duration series. in NAZM Noar, R Zakaria, WNSW Yusoff, MS Mohamad & MRA Hamid (eds), 2nd ISM International Statistical Conference 2014, ISM 2014: Empowering the Applications of Statistical and Mathematical Sciences. AIP Conference Proceedings, vol. 1643, American Institute of Physics Inc., pp. 312-320, 2nd ISM International Statistical Conference 2014: Empowering the Applications of Statistical and Mathematical Sciences, ISM 2014, Kuantan, Pahang, Malaysia, 12/8/14. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4907461
Wan Zin @ Wan Ibrahim WZ, Shinyie WL, Jemain AA. Modelling of extreme rainfall events in Peninsular Malaysia based on annual maximum and partial duration series. In Noar NAZM, Zakaria R, Yusoff WNSW, Mohamad MS, Hamid MRA, editors, 2nd ISM International Statistical Conference 2014, ISM 2014: Empowering the Applications of Statistical and Mathematical Sciences. American Institute of Physics Inc. 2015. p. 312-320. (AIP Conference Proceedings). https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4907461
Wan Zin @ Wan Ibrahim, Wan Zawiah ; Shinyie, Wendy Ling ; Jemain, Abdul Aziz. / Modelling of extreme rainfall events in Peninsular Malaysia based on annual maximum and partial duration series. 2nd ISM International Statistical Conference 2014, ISM 2014: Empowering the Applications of Statistical and Mathematical Sciences. editor / Nor Aida Zuraimi Md Noar ; Roslinazairimah Zakaria ; Wan Nur Syahidah Wan Yusoff ; Mohd Sham Mohamad ; Mohd Rashid Ab Hamid. American Institute of Physics Inc., 2015. pp. 312-320 (AIP Conference Proceedings).
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