Model calibration and uncertainty analysis of runoff in the Zayanderood River basin using Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method

Majid Mirzaei, Hadi Galavi, Mina Faghih, Yuk Feng Huang, Teang Shui Lee, Ahmed El-Shafie

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    12 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    This study is designed to consider the uncertainty in the kinematic runoff and erosion model named KINEROS2. The Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method was used for assessing the uncertainty associated with model predictions, which assumes that due to the limitations in model structure, data and calibration scheme, many different parameter sets can make acceptable simulations. GLUE is a Bayesian approach based on the Monte Carlo method for model calibration and uncertainty analysis. The assessment was performed in the Zayanderood River basin located in Central Iran. To make an accurate calibration, five runoff events were selected from three different gauging stations for the purpose. Statistical evaluations for streamflow prediction indicate that there is good agreement between the measured and simulated flows with Nash-Sutcliffe values of efficiency of 0.85 and 0.79 for calibration and validation periods respectively. Uncertainty analysis was carried out on the new distribution of input parameters for model validation.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)309-320
    Number of pages12
    JournalJournal of Water Supply: Research and Technology - AQUA
    Volume62
    Issue number5
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2013

    Fingerprint

    Uncertainty analysis
    uncertainty analysis
    estimation method
    Runoff
    Rivers
    Catchments
    Calibration
    Uncertainty
    river basin
    runoff
    calibration
    Gaging
    model validation
    Model structures
    prediction
    streamflow
    Monte Carlo Method
    Erosion
    Kinematics
    Monte Carlo methods

    Keywords

    • GLUE
    • KINEROS
    • Model calibration
    • Uncertainty analysis

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Water Science and Technology
    • Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis
    • Environmental Engineering

    Cite this

    Model calibration and uncertainty analysis of runoff in the Zayanderood River basin using Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method. / Mirzaei, Majid; Galavi, Hadi; Faghih, Mina; Huang, Yuk Feng; Lee, Teang Shui; El-Shafie, Ahmed.

    In: Journal of Water Supply: Research and Technology - AQUA, Vol. 62, No. 5, 2013, p. 309-320.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Mirzaei, Majid ; Galavi, Hadi ; Faghih, Mina ; Huang, Yuk Feng ; Lee, Teang Shui ; El-Shafie, Ahmed. / Model calibration and uncertainty analysis of runoff in the Zayanderood River basin using Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method. In: Journal of Water Supply: Research and Technology - AQUA. 2013 ; Vol. 62, No. 5. pp. 309-320.
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