Investigation on the implementation of the holt-winter method for ionospheric delay forecasting

Nouf Abd Elmunim, Mardina Abdullah, Alina Marie Hasbi, Siti Aminah Bahari

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

The ionospheric layer is an essential source of error that changes the signal velocity of the Global Positioning System (GPS), causing signal delay. Therefore, studying ionospheric delay and forecasting is essential to understand the ionospheric delay behaviour and to identify an accurate forecasting approach to enhance the GPS positioning accuracy by reducing the errors. This research focused on the implementation of the statistical Holt-Winter method to forecast ionospheric delay, using the data derived from the GPS Ionospheric Scintillation and TEC Monitor (GISTM) receiver located at Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM) station at the geographic coordinate of 2.55 ºN, 101.46 ºE and geomagnetic coordinate of 7.10 ºS, 174.05 ºE, during 2011. The forecast was carried out on a diurnal, monthly and seasonal variation. The peaks of the ionospheric delay were observed in the post-noon time while the minimum was observed in the early morning time. A comparison of the monthly actual ionospheric delay with the forecasted one showed that the maximum difference in variation between the actual ionospheric delay and forecasted was around 0.16 m. The efficiency of the Holt-Winter in forecasting ionospheric delay was proven with an accuracy of between 95–98%.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1325-1328
Number of pages4
JournalAdvanced Science Letters
Volume23
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Feb 2017

Fingerprint

Geographic Information Systems
Global positioning system
Forecasting
GPS
winter
Global Positioning System
seasonal variation
Malaysia
Scintillation
positioning
diurnal variation
Research Design
recipient
Forecast
efficiency
Research
method
Positioning
Monitor
Receiver

Keywords

  • GPS
  • Holt-winter
  • Ionospheric delay

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Health(social science)
  • Computer Science(all)
  • Education
  • Mathematics(all)
  • Environmental Science(all)
  • Engineering(all)
  • Energy(all)

Cite this

Investigation on the implementation of the holt-winter method for ionospheric delay forecasting. / Elmunim, Nouf Abd; Abdullah, Mardina; Hasbi, Alina Marie; Bahari, Siti Aminah.

In: Advanced Science Letters, Vol. 23, No. 2, 01.02.2017, p. 1325-1328.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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