Implementation of multiple functions intervention model to evaluate the impact of the crisis and gambling prohibition policy on tourism in Batam

Sri Rezeki, Suyadi, Suhartono, Zuliskandar Ramli, Muhammad Rizal Razman

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

The objective of this research is to study the impact of the monetary crisis and gambling prohibition policy on the number of tourist arrivals by using a multi input intervention model. The focus is on the development of a model that could be used to explain the magnitude and periodic impacts of the monetary crisis since July 1997, terrorist attacks referring to the Bali bombings on October 12 2002 and October lst2005, and gambling prohibition policy on June 2005 respectively. This research was carried out through the study of literature, theory as well as simulation. After the theoretical study of mathematical statistics, then the simulation of several examples of time series data containing the effect of the intervention is done, to validate the theory on a study of the data that meets certain conditions. Based on the results, it is concluded that the multi input interventions model can be done with generalizing procedures of single input intervention model relatively. Stages in single input intervention model are repeated as many as intervention variables used. Criteria for determining the order for any intervention is by using the response function with limits ±3MSE. The description of the data pattern that has been obtained is used as a basis for multi input intervention model in the case of the number of foreign tourist arrivals to Batam. Intervention model obtained in this study has a very high accuracy. It is shown from the results of an accurate intervals prediction because all of the intervals include actual occurrence.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2447-2458
Number of pages12
JournalInformation (Japan)
Volume19
Issue number7A
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jul 2016

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Bombing
Time series
Statistical methods

Keywords

  • Intervention model
  • Multi input
  • Tourism

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General

Cite this

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abstract = "The objective of this research is to study the impact of the monetary crisis and gambling prohibition policy on the number of tourist arrivals by using a multi input intervention model. The focus is on the development of a model that could be used to explain the magnitude and periodic impacts of the monetary crisis since July 1997, terrorist attacks referring to the Bali bombings on October 12 2002 and October lst2005, and gambling prohibition policy on June 2005 respectively. This research was carried out through the study of literature, theory as well as simulation. After the theoretical study of mathematical statistics, then the simulation of several examples of time series data containing the effect of the intervention is done, to validate the theory on a study of the data that meets certain conditions. Based on the results, it is concluded that the multi input interventions model can be done with generalizing procedures of single input intervention model relatively. Stages in single input intervention model are repeated as many as intervention variables used. Criteria for determining the order for any intervention is by using the response function with limits ±3MSE. The description of the data pattern that has been obtained is used as a basis for multi input intervention model in the case of the number of foreign tourist arrivals to Batam. Intervention model obtained in this study has a very high accuracy. It is shown from the results of an accurate intervals prediction because all of the intervals include actual occurrence.",
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