Future projections of extreme precipitation using Advanced Weather Generator (AWE-GEN) over Peninsular Malaysia

A. H. Syafrina, M. D. Zalina, Ju Neng Liew

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

A stochastic downscaling methodology known as the Advanced Weather Generator, AWE-GEN, has been tested at four stations in Peninsular Malaysia using observations available from 1975 to 2005. The methodology involves a stochastic downscaling procedure based on a Bayesian approach. Climate statistics from a multi-model ensemble of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs were calculated and factors of change were derived to produce the probability distribution functions (PDF). New parameters were obtained to project future climate time series. A multi-model ensemble was used in this study. The projections of extreme precipitation were based on the RCP 6.0 scenario (2081-2100). The model was able to simulate both hourly and 24-h extreme precipitation, as well as wet spell durations quite well for almost all regions. However, the performance of GCM models varies significantly in all regions showing high variability of monthly precipitation for both observed and future periods. The extreme precipitation for both hourly and 24-h seems to increase in future, while extreme of wet spells remain unchanged, up to the return periods of 10-40 years.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationIAHS-AISH Proceedings and Reports
PublisherIAHS Press
Pages106-111
Number of pages6
Volume364
ISBN (Print)9781907161421
Publication statusPublished - 2014
EventBologna IAHS 2014 - 6th IAHS-EGU International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management - Bologna
Duration: 4 Jun 20146 Jun 2014

Other

OtherBologna IAHS 2014 - 6th IAHS-EGU International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management
CityBologna
Period4/6/146/6/14

Fingerprint

weather
downscaling
general circulation model
methodology
climate
return period
time series
distribution
statistics
station
project
parameter

Keywords

  • Extreme precipitation
  • General Circulation Model
  • Multi-model
  • Stochastic downscaling
  • Weather generator

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)

Cite this

Syafrina, A. H., Zalina, M. D., & Liew, J. N. (2014). Future projections of extreme precipitation using Advanced Weather Generator (AWE-GEN) over Peninsular Malaysia. In IAHS-AISH Proceedings and Reports (Vol. 364, pp. 106-111). IAHS Press.

Future projections of extreme precipitation using Advanced Weather Generator (AWE-GEN) over Peninsular Malaysia. / Syafrina, A. H.; Zalina, M. D.; Liew, Ju Neng.

IAHS-AISH Proceedings and Reports. Vol. 364 IAHS Press, 2014. p. 106-111.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Syafrina, AH, Zalina, MD & Liew, JN 2014, Future projections of extreme precipitation using Advanced Weather Generator (AWE-GEN) over Peninsular Malaysia. in IAHS-AISH Proceedings and Reports. vol. 364, IAHS Press, pp. 106-111, Bologna IAHS 2014 - 6th IAHS-EGU International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management, Bologna, 4/6/14.
Syafrina AH, Zalina MD, Liew JN. Future projections of extreme precipitation using Advanced Weather Generator (AWE-GEN) over Peninsular Malaysia. In IAHS-AISH Proceedings and Reports. Vol. 364. IAHS Press. 2014. p. 106-111
Syafrina, A. H. ; Zalina, M. D. ; Liew, Ju Neng. / Future projections of extreme precipitation using Advanced Weather Generator (AWE-GEN) over Peninsular Malaysia. IAHS-AISH Proceedings and Reports. Vol. 364 IAHS Press, 2014. pp. 106-111
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