Forecasting severe rainfall in the equatorial Southeast Asia

Mastura Mahmud, T. S V Vijaya Kumar

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

13 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Accurate prediction of monsoon heavy rainfall events in the equatorial region has always been a challenge to weather forecasters. In this paper, forecast of a severe precipitation event that occurred over the eastern central coast of Peninsular Malaysia was attempted using the state-of-the-art Florida State University (FSU) Global and Regional Spectral Models. The sensitivity of parameterized convection in these models on precipitation forecast skill is studied using two different parameterization schemes for cumulus convection (the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert scheme and the modified Kuo scheme). Low precipitation threshold of rainfall less than 2 mm day-1 was successfully predicted by both versions of the FSU model. However, the convection schemes lacked skill in predicting the correct placement of the area and amount for the high precipitation threshold greater than 40 mm day-1. Further evaluation of the predictive skills showed that the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert scheme was a consistently better predictor of rainfall due to its low bias and lower root mean square errors (RMSEs) compared to the modified Kuo parameterization scheme.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)109-128
Number of pages20
JournalGeofizika
Volume25
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2008

Fingerprint

Southeast Asia
forecasting
convection
rainfall
parameterization
cumulus
Malaysia
equatorial regions
thresholds
monsoons
root-mean-square errors
monsoon
predictions
coasts
weather
coast
prediction
evaluation
sensitivity
forecast

Keywords

  • Equatorial Southeast Asia
  • Global and regional spectral models
  • Monsoon rainfall
  • Rainfall prediction

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geophysics

Cite this

Mahmud, M., & Vijaya Kumar, T. S. V. (2008). Forecasting severe rainfall in the equatorial Southeast Asia. Geofizika, 25(2), 109-128.

Forecasting severe rainfall in the equatorial Southeast Asia. / Mahmud, Mastura; Vijaya Kumar, T. S V.

In: Geofizika, Vol. 25, No. 2, 12.2008, p. 109-128.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Mahmud, M & Vijaya Kumar, TSV 2008, 'Forecasting severe rainfall in the equatorial Southeast Asia', Geofizika, vol. 25, no. 2, pp. 109-128.
Mahmud, Mastura ; Vijaya Kumar, T. S V. / Forecasting severe rainfall in the equatorial Southeast Asia. In: Geofizika. 2008 ; Vol. 25, No. 2. pp. 109-128.
@article{61b1ed3d8eb147f9b1af8252c9fe541b,
title = "Forecasting severe rainfall in the equatorial Southeast Asia",
abstract = "Accurate prediction of monsoon heavy rainfall events in the equatorial region has always been a challenge to weather forecasters. In this paper, forecast of a severe precipitation event that occurred over the eastern central coast of Peninsular Malaysia was attempted using the state-of-the-art Florida State University (FSU) Global and Regional Spectral Models. The sensitivity of parameterized convection in these models on precipitation forecast skill is studied using two different parameterization schemes for cumulus convection (the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert scheme and the modified Kuo scheme). Low precipitation threshold of rainfall less than 2 mm day-1 was successfully predicted by both versions of the FSU model. However, the convection schemes lacked skill in predicting the correct placement of the area and amount for the high precipitation threshold greater than 40 mm day-1. Further evaluation of the predictive skills showed that the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert scheme was a consistently better predictor of rainfall due to its low bias and lower root mean square errors (RMSEs) compared to the modified Kuo parameterization scheme.",
keywords = "Equatorial Southeast Asia, Global and regional spectral models, Monsoon rainfall, Rainfall prediction",
author = "Mastura Mahmud and {Vijaya Kumar}, {T. S V}",
year = "2008",
month = "12",
language = "English",
volume = "25",
pages = "109--128",
journal = "Geofizika",
issn = "0352-3659",
publisher = "Geofizicki Zavod",
number = "2",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Forecasting severe rainfall in the equatorial Southeast Asia

AU - Mahmud, Mastura

AU - Vijaya Kumar, T. S V

PY - 2008/12

Y1 - 2008/12

N2 - Accurate prediction of monsoon heavy rainfall events in the equatorial region has always been a challenge to weather forecasters. In this paper, forecast of a severe precipitation event that occurred over the eastern central coast of Peninsular Malaysia was attempted using the state-of-the-art Florida State University (FSU) Global and Regional Spectral Models. The sensitivity of parameterized convection in these models on precipitation forecast skill is studied using two different parameterization schemes for cumulus convection (the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert scheme and the modified Kuo scheme). Low precipitation threshold of rainfall less than 2 mm day-1 was successfully predicted by both versions of the FSU model. However, the convection schemes lacked skill in predicting the correct placement of the area and amount for the high precipitation threshold greater than 40 mm day-1. Further evaluation of the predictive skills showed that the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert scheme was a consistently better predictor of rainfall due to its low bias and lower root mean square errors (RMSEs) compared to the modified Kuo parameterization scheme.

AB - Accurate prediction of monsoon heavy rainfall events in the equatorial region has always been a challenge to weather forecasters. In this paper, forecast of a severe precipitation event that occurred over the eastern central coast of Peninsular Malaysia was attempted using the state-of-the-art Florida State University (FSU) Global and Regional Spectral Models. The sensitivity of parameterized convection in these models on precipitation forecast skill is studied using two different parameterization schemes for cumulus convection (the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert scheme and the modified Kuo scheme). Low precipitation threshold of rainfall less than 2 mm day-1 was successfully predicted by both versions of the FSU model. However, the convection schemes lacked skill in predicting the correct placement of the area and amount for the high precipitation threshold greater than 40 mm day-1. Further evaluation of the predictive skills showed that the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert scheme was a consistently better predictor of rainfall due to its low bias and lower root mean square errors (RMSEs) compared to the modified Kuo parameterization scheme.

KW - Equatorial Southeast Asia

KW - Global and regional spectral models

KW - Monsoon rainfall

KW - Rainfall prediction

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=60649103814&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=60649103814&partnerID=8YFLogxK

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:60649103814

VL - 25

SP - 109

EP - 128

JO - Geofizika

JF - Geofizika

SN - 0352-3659

IS - 2

ER -