Forecasting of palm oil price in Malaysia using linear and nonlinear methods

Abu Hassan Shaari Md Nor, Tamat Sarmidi, Ehsan Hosseinidoust

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The first question that comes to the mind is: "How can we predict the palm oil price accurately?" This question is the authorities, policy makers and economist's question for a long period of time. The first reason is that in the recent years Malaysia showed a comparative advantage in palm oil production and has become top producer and exporter in the world. Secondly, palm oil price plays significant role in government budget and represents important source of income for Malaysia, which potentially can influence the magnitude of monetary policies and eventually have an impact on inflation. Thirdly, knowledge on the future trends would be helpful in the planning and decision making procedures and will generate precise fiscal and monetary policy. Daily data on palm oil prices along with the ARIMA models, neural networks and fuzzy logic systems are employed in this paper. Empirical findings indicate that the dynamic neural network of NARX and the hybrid system of ANFIS provide higher accuracy than the ARIMA and static neural network for forecasting the palm oil price in Malaysia.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationStatistics and Operational Research International Conference, SORIC 2013
PublisherAmerican Institute of Physics Inc.
Pages138-152
Number of pages15
Volume1613
ISBN (Electronic)9780735412491
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2014
EventStatistics and Operational Research International Conference, SORIC 2013 - Sarawak, Malaysia
Duration: 3 Dec 20135 Dec 2013

Other

OtherStatistics and Operational Research International Conference, SORIC 2013
CountryMalaysia
CitySarawak
Period3/12/135/12/13

Fingerprint

Malaysia
forecasting
oils
income
decision making
budgets
logic
planning
trends

Keywords

  • ANFIS
  • ARIMA
  • NARX
  • palm oil price

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Physics and Astronomy(all)

Cite this

Md Nor, A. H. S., Sarmidi, T., & Hosseinidoust, E. (2014). Forecasting of palm oil price in Malaysia using linear and nonlinear methods. In Statistics and Operational Research International Conference, SORIC 2013 (Vol. 1613, pp. 138-152). American Institute of Physics Inc.. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4894340

Forecasting of palm oil price in Malaysia using linear and nonlinear methods. / Md Nor, Abu Hassan Shaari; Sarmidi, Tamat; Hosseinidoust, Ehsan.

Statistics and Operational Research International Conference, SORIC 2013. Vol. 1613 American Institute of Physics Inc., 2014. p. 138-152.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Md Nor, AHS, Sarmidi, T & Hosseinidoust, E 2014, Forecasting of palm oil price in Malaysia using linear and nonlinear methods. in Statistics and Operational Research International Conference, SORIC 2013. vol. 1613, American Institute of Physics Inc., pp. 138-152, Statistics and Operational Research International Conference, SORIC 2013, Sarawak, Malaysia, 3/12/13. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4894340
Md Nor AHS, Sarmidi T, Hosseinidoust E. Forecasting of palm oil price in Malaysia using linear and nonlinear methods. In Statistics and Operational Research International Conference, SORIC 2013. Vol. 1613. American Institute of Physics Inc. 2014. p. 138-152 https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4894340
Md Nor, Abu Hassan Shaari ; Sarmidi, Tamat ; Hosseinidoust, Ehsan. / Forecasting of palm oil price in Malaysia using linear and nonlinear methods. Statistics and Operational Research International Conference, SORIC 2013. Vol. 1613 American Institute of Physics Inc., 2014. pp. 138-152
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