Abstract
Forecasting and analyzing the ozone (O3) concentration time series is important because the pollutant is harmful to health. This study is a pilot study for forecasting and analyzing the O3 time series in one of Malaysian educational area namely Shah Alam using chaotic approach. Through this approach, the observed hourly scalar time series is reconstructed into a multi-dimensional phase space, which is then used to forecast the future time series through the local linear approximation method. The main purpose is to forecast the high O3 concentrations. The original method performed poorly but the improved method addressed the weakness thereby enabling the high concentrations to be successfully forecast. The correlation coefficient between the observed and forecasted time series through the improved method is 0.9159 and both the mean absolute error and root mean squared error are low. Thus, the improved method is advantageous. The time series analysis by means of the phase space plot and Cao method identified the presence of low-dimensional chaotic dynamics in the observed O3 time series. Results showed that at least seven factors affect the studied O3 time series, which is consistent with the listed factors from the diurnal variations investigation and the sensitivity analysis from past studies. In conclusion, chaotic approach has been successfully forecast and analyzes the O3 time series in educational area of Shah Alam. These findings are expected to help stakeholders such as Ministry of Education and Department of Environment in having a better air pollution management.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Title of host publication | Proceedings of the 24th National Symposium on Mathematical Sciences |
| Subtitle of host publication | Mathematical Sciences Exploration for the Universal Preservation, SKSM 2016 |
| Publisher | American Institute of Physics Inc. |
| Volume | 1870 |
| ISBN (Electronic) | 9780735415508 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 7 Aug 2017 |
| Event | 24th National Symposium on Mathematical Sciences: Mathematical Sciences Exploration for the Universal Preservation, SKSM 2016 - Kuala Terengganu, Terengganu, Malaysia Duration: 27 Sep 2016 → 29 Sep 2016 |
Other
| Other | 24th National Symposium on Mathematical Sciences: Mathematical Sciences Exploration for the Universal Preservation, SKSM 2016 |
|---|---|
| Country | Malaysia |
| City | Kuala Terengganu, Terengganu |
| Period | 27/9/16 → 29/9/16 |
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ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Physics and Astronomy(all)
Cite this
Forecasting and analyzing high O3 time series in educational area through an improved chaotic approach. / Hamid, Nor Zila Abd; Adenan, Nur Hamiza; Md. Noorani, Mohd. Salmi.
Proceedings of the 24th National Symposium on Mathematical Sciences: Mathematical Sciences Exploration for the Universal Preservation, SKSM 2016. Vol. 1870 American Institute of Physics Inc., 2017. 040035.Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution
}
TY - GEN
T1 - Forecasting and analyzing high O3 time series in educational area through an improved chaotic approach
AU - Hamid, Nor Zila Abd
AU - Adenan, Nur Hamiza
AU - Md. Noorani, Mohd. Salmi
PY - 2017/8/7
Y1 - 2017/8/7
N2 - Forecasting and analyzing the ozone (O3) concentration time series is important because the pollutant is harmful to health. This study is a pilot study for forecasting and analyzing the O3 time series in one of Malaysian educational area namely Shah Alam using chaotic approach. Through this approach, the observed hourly scalar time series is reconstructed into a multi-dimensional phase space, which is then used to forecast the future time series through the local linear approximation method. The main purpose is to forecast the high O3 concentrations. The original method performed poorly but the improved method addressed the weakness thereby enabling the high concentrations to be successfully forecast. The correlation coefficient between the observed and forecasted time series through the improved method is 0.9159 and both the mean absolute error and root mean squared error are low. Thus, the improved method is advantageous. The time series analysis by means of the phase space plot and Cao method identified the presence of low-dimensional chaotic dynamics in the observed O3 time series. Results showed that at least seven factors affect the studied O3 time series, which is consistent with the listed factors from the diurnal variations investigation and the sensitivity analysis from past studies. In conclusion, chaotic approach has been successfully forecast and analyzes the O3 time series in educational area of Shah Alam. These findings are expected to help stakeholders such as Ministry of Education and Department of Environment in having a better air pollution management.
AB - Forecasting and analyzing the ozone (O3) concentration time series is important because the pollutant is harmful to health. This study is a pilot study for forecasting and analyzing the O3 time series in one of Malaysian educational area namely Shah Alam using chaotic approach. Through this approach, the observed hourly scalar time series is reconstructed into a multi-dimensional phase space, which is then used to forecast the future time series through the local linear approximation method. The main purpose is to forecast the high O3 concentrations. The original method performed poorly but the improved method addressed the weakness thereby enabling the high concentrations to be successfully forecast. The correlation coefficient between the observed and forecasted time series through the improved method is 0.9159 and both the mean absolute error and root mean squared error are low. Thus, the improved method is advantageous. The time series analysis by means of the phase space plot and Cao method identified the presence of low-dimensional chaotic dynamics in the observed O3 time series. Results showed that at least seven factors affect the studied O3 time series, which is consistent with the listed factors from the diurnal variations investigation and the sensitivity analysis from past studies. In conclusion, chaotic approach has been successfully forecast and analyzes the O3 time series in educational area of Shah Alam. These findings are expected to help stakeholders such as Ministry of Education and Department of Environment in having a better air pollution management.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85028341710&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85028341710&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1063/1.4995867
DO - 10.1063/1.4995867
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:85028341710
VL - 1870
BT - Proceedings of the 24th National Symposium on Mathematical Sciences
PB - American Institute of Physics Inc.
ER -