Forecasting and analyzing high O3 time series in educational area through an improved chaotic approach

Nor Zila Abd Hamid, Nur Hamiza Adenan, Mohd. Salmi Md. Noorani

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Forecasting and analyzing the ozone (O3) concentration time series is important because the pollutant is harmful to health. This study is a pilot study for forecasting and analyzing the O3 time series in one of Malaysian educational area namely Shah Alam using chaotic approach. Through this approach, the observed hourly scalar time series is reconstructed into a multi-dimensional phase space, which is then used to forecast the future time series through the local linear approximation method. The main purpose is to forecast the high O3 concentrations. The original method performed poorly but the improved method addressed the weakness thereby enabling the high concentrations to be successfully forecast. The correlation coefficient between the observed and forecasted time series through the improved method is 0.9159 and both the mean absolute error and root mean squared error are low. Thus, the improved method is advantageous. The time series analysis by means of the phase space plot and Cao method identified the presence of low-dimensional chaotic dynamics in the observed O3 time series. Results showed that at least seven factors affect the studied O3 time series, which is consistent with the listed factors from the diurnal variations investigation and the sensitivity analysis from past studies. In conclusion, chaotic approach has been successfully forecast and analyzes the O3 time series in educational area of Shah Alam. These findings are expected to help stakeholders such as Ministry of Education and Department of Environment in having a better air pollution management.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 24th National Symposium on Mathematical Sciences
Subtitle of host publicationMathematical Sciences Exploration for the Universal Preservation, SKSM 2016
PublisherAmerican Institute of Physics Inc.
Volume1870
ISBN (Electronic)9780735415508
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 7 Aug 2017
Event24th National Symposium on Mathematical Sciences: Mathematical Sciences Exploration for the Universal Preservation, SKSM 2016 - Kuala Terengganu, Terengganu, Malaysia
Duration: 27 Sep 201629 Sep 2016

Other

Other24th National Symposium on Mathematical Sciences: Mathematical Sciences Exploration for the Universal Preservation, SKSM 2016
CountryMalaysia
CityKuala Terengganu, Terengganu
Period27/9/1629/9/16

Fingerprint

forecasting
time series analysis
air pollution
diurnal variations
sensitivity analysis
correlation coefficients
ozone
health
contaminants
education
plots
scalars
approximation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Physics and Astronomy(all)

Cite this

Hamid, N. Z. A., Adenan, N. H., & Md. Noorani, M. S. (2017). Forecasting and analyzing high O3 time series in educational area through an improved chaotic approach. In Proceedings of the 24th National Symposium on Mathematical Sciences: Mathematical Sciences Exploration for the Universal Preservation, SKSM 2016 (Vol. 1870). [040035] American Institute of Physics Inc.. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4995867

Forecasting and analyzing high O3 time series in educational area through an improved chaotic approach. / Hamid, Nor Zila Abd; Adenan, Nur Hamiza; Md. Noorani, Mohd. Salmi.

Proceedings of the 24th National Symposium on Mathematical Sciences: Mathematical Sciences Exploration for the Universal Preservation, SKSM 2016. Vol. 1870 American Institute of Physics Inc., 2017. 040035.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Hamid, NZA, Adenan, NH & Md. Noorani, MS 2017, Forecasting and analyzing high O3 time series in educational area through an improved chaotic approach. in Proceedings of the 24th National Symposium on Mathematical Sciences: Mathematical Sciences Exploration for the Universal Preservation, SKSM 2016. vol. 1870, 040035, American Institute of Physics Inc., 24th National Symposium on Mathematical Sciences: Mathematical Sciences Exploration for the Universal Preservation, SKSM 2016, Kuala Terengganu, Terengganu, Malaysia, 27/9/16. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4995867
Hamid NZA, Adenan NH, Md. Noorani MS. Forecasting and analyzing high O3 time series in educational area through an improved chaotic approach. In Proceedings of the 24th National Symposium on Mathematical Sciences: Mathematical Sciences Exploration for the Universal Preservation, SKSM 2016. Vol. 1870. American Institute of Physics Inc. 2017. 040035 https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4995867
Hamid, Nor Zila Abd ; Adenan, Nur Hamiza ; Md. Noorani, Mohd. Salmi. / Forecasting and analyzing high O3 time series in educational area through an improved chaotic approach. Proceedings of the 24th National Symposium on Mathematical Sciences: Mathematical Sciences Exploration for the Universal Preservation, SKSM 2016. Vol. 1870 American Institute of Physics Inc., 2017.
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