Comparison of statistical Holt-Winter models for forecasting the ionospheric delay using GPS observations

N. A. Elmunim, Mardina Abdullah, Alina Marie Hasbi, S. A. Bahari

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

9 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The ionosphere is a notable source of error that disrupts the accuracy of the global position system (GPS) signal to the ground by changing the speed and direction of the signal propagation and in the process causing a delay in the signal. Therefore, forecasting the ionospheric delay is very important to reduce the GPS positioning error. In this work, statistical Holt-Winter method was chosen due to its suitability in forecasting time series with repeated seasonal patterns. This involved the forecast of ionospheric delays during the period October 2009 - December 2010 using GPS Ionospheric Scintillation and TEC Monitor (GISTM) over Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM) station, at geographic coordinates 2.55°N, 101.46°E. The comparison of Additive and Multiplicative Holt-Winter models was done in terms of month-to-month error measurement, the difference of the actual and forecasting delay and the monthly average of the forecast. The maximum difference between actual and forecasting delay was estimated to be about 2 m. The results showed that the accuracy of the Multiplicative model in forecasting the ionospheric delay is better by 2% than that of Additive model going by its small error values and higher accuracy.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)28-34
Number of pages7
JournalIndian Journal of Radio and Space Physics
Volume44
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 2015

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forecasting
winter
ionospherics
positioning system
ionosphere
time series
Malaysia
comparison
positioning
ionospheres
scintillation
monitors
stations
forecast
propagation
method
station
speed

Keywords

  • Holt-winter additive model
  • Holt-winter multiplicative model
  • Ionospheric delay
  • Total electron content

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Physics and Astronomy (miscellaneous)
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)

Cite this

Comparison of statistical Holt-Winter models for forecasting the ionospheric delay using GPS observations. / Elmunim, N. A.; Abdullah, Mardina; Hasbi, Alina Marie; Bahari, S. A.

In: Indian Journal of Radio and Space Physics, Vol. 44, No. 1, 2015, p. 28-34.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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