Analysis of drought condition and risk in Peninsular Malaysia using Standardised Precipitation Index

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Abstract

Contrary to the belief that Peninsular Malaysia experiences wet condition throughout the year, prolonged dry condition has lately become a recurrent phenomenon in this region. As a result, country's agricultural sector and water resources have been under severe constraints from this situation. To get a clearer picture of the dry condition in Peninsular Malaysia, the Standardised Precipitation Index, based on the data of monthly rainfall from 50 stations, is derived. Spatial analysis is used to illustrate the percentage of occurrences of dry and very dry events. To evaluate the potential risk due to the dry conditions, we modelled the joint distribution of severity and duration of dry condition by means of bivariate copula. Several copula models were tested, and the model, which best represents the relationship between severity and duration, is determined using Akaike information criterion. Based on the results, the return period for the drought severity, based on the longest duration of drought at each station, can be estimated. This enables the drought risk to be calculated, thus planning on the measures to minimise the impact of a prolonged drought to the societies, which can be done by the relevant authorities.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)559-568
Number of pages10
JournalTheoretical and Applied Climatology
Volume111
Issue number3-4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2013

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drought
Akaike information criterion
return period
spatial analysis
water resource
rainfall
analysis
index
station

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Atmospheric Science

Cite this

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title = "Analysis of drought condition and risk in Peninsular Malaysia using Standardised Precipitation Index",
abstract = "Contrary to the belief that Peninsular Malaysia experiences wet condition throughout the year, prolonged dry condition has lately become a recurrent phenomenon in this region. As a result, country's agricultural sector and water resources have been under severe constraints from this situation. To get a clearer picture of the dry condition in Peninsular Malaysia, the Standardised Precipitation Index, based on the data of monthly rainfall from 50 stations, is derived. Spatial analysis is used to illustrate the percentage of occurrences of dry and very dry events. To evaluate the potential risk due to the dry conditions, we modelled the joint distribution of severity and duration of dry condition by means of bivariate copula. Several copula models were tested, and the model, which best represents the relationship between severity and duration, is determined using Akaike information criterion. Based on the results, the return period for the drought severity, based on the longest duration of drought at each station, can be estimated. This enables the drought risk to be calculated, thus planning on the measures to minimise the impact of a prolonged drought to the societies, which can be done by the relevant authorities.",
author = "{Wan Zin @ Wan Ibrahim}, {Wan Zawiah} and Jemain, {Abdul Aziz} and Kamarulzaman Ibrahim",
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AU - Jemain, Abdul Aziz

AU - Ibrahim, Kamarulzaman

PY - 2013

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N2 - Contrary to the belief that Peninsular Malaysia experiences wet condition throughout the year, prolonged dry condition has lately become a recurrent phenomenon in this region. As a result, country's agricultural sector and water resources have been under severe constraints from this situation. To get a clearer picture of the dry condition in Peninsular Malaysia, the Standardised Precipitation Index, based on the data of monthly rainfall from 50 stations, is derived. Spatial analysis is used to illustrate the percentage of occurrences of dry and very dry events. To evaluate the potential risk due to the dry conditions, we modelled the joint distribution of severity and duration of dry condition by means of bivariate copula. Several copula models were tested, and the model, which best represents the relationship between severity and duration, is determined using Akaike information criterion. Based on the results, the return period for the drought severity, based on the longest duration of drought at each station, can be estimated. This enables the drought risk to be calculated, thus planning on the measures to minimise the impact of a prolonged drought to the societies, which can be done by the relevant authorities.

AB - Contrary to the belief that Peninsular Malaysia experiences wet condition throughout the year, prolonged dry condition has lately become a recurrent phenomenon in this region. As a result, country's agricultural sector and water resources have been under severe constraints from this situation. To get a clearer picture of the dry condition in Peninsular Malaysia, the Standardised Precipitation Index, based on the data of monthly rainfall from 50 stations, is derived. Spatial analysis is used to illustrate the percentage of occurrences of dry and very dry events. To evaluate the potential risk due to the dry conditions, we modelled the joint distribution of severity and duration of dry condition by means of bivariate copula. Several copula models were tested, and the model, which best represents the relationship between severity and duration, is determined using Akaike information criterion. Based on the results, the return period for the drought severity, based on the longest duration of drought at each station, can be estimated. This enables the drought risk to be calculated, thus planning on the measures to minimise the impact of a prolonged drought to the societies, which can be done by the relevant authorities.

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