A nonlinear model of gold production in Malaysia

Norashikin Ramli, Nora Muda, Mohd. Rozi Umor

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Malaysia is a country which is rich in natural resources and one of it is a gold. Gold has already become an important national commodity. This study is conducted to determine a model that can be well fitted with the gold production in Malaysia from the year 1995-2010. Five nonlinear models are presented in this study which are Logistic model, Gompertz, Richard, Weibull and Chapman-Richard model. These model are used to fit the cumulative gold production in Malaysia. The best model is then selected based on the model performance. The performance of the fitted model is measured by sum squares error, root mean squares error, coefficient of determination, mean relative error, mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error. This study has found that a Weibull model is shown to have significantly outperform compare to the other models. To confirm that Weibull is the best model, the latest data are fitted to the model. Once again, Weibull model gives the lowest readings at all types of measurement error. We can concluded that the future gold production in Malaysia can be predicted according to the Weibull model and this could be important findings for Malaysia to plan their economic activities.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationAIP Conference Proceedings
PublisherAmerican Institute of Physics Inc.
Pages953-958
Number of pages6
Volume1602
ISBN (Print)9780735412361
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014
Event3rd International Conference on Mathematical Sciences, ICMS 2013 - Kuala Lumpur
Duration: 17 Dec 201319 Dec 2013

Other

Other3rd International Conference on Mathematical Sciences, ICMS 2013
CityKuala Lumpur
Period17/12/1319/12/13

Fingerprint

Malaysia
gold
commodities
root-mean-square errors
logistics

Keywords

  • forecasting error
  • MAPE
  • RMSE
  • Weibull model

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Physics and Astronomy(all)

Cite this

Ramli, N., Muda, N., & Umor, M. R. (2014). A nonlinear model of gold production in Malaysia. In AIP Conference Proceedings (Vol. 1602, pp. 953-958). American Institute of Physics Inc.. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4882598

A nonlinear model of gold production in Malaysia. / Ramli, Norashikin; Muda, Nora; Umor, Mohd. Rozi.

AIP Conference Proceedings. Vol. 1602 American Institute of Physics Inc., 2014. p. 953-958.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Ramli, N, Muda, N & Umor, MR 2014, A nonlinear model of gold production in Malaysia. in AIP Conference Proceedings. vol. 1602, American Institute of Physics Inc., pp. 953-958, 3rd International Conference on Mathematical Sciences, ICMS 2013, Kuala Lumpur, 17/12/13. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4882598
Ramli N, Muda N, Umor MR. A nonlinear model of gold production in Malaysia. In AIP Conference Proceedings. Vol. 1602. American Institute of Physics Inc. 2014. p. 953-958 https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4882598
Ramli, Norashikin ; Muda, Nora ; Umor, Mohd. Rozi. / A nonlinear model of gold production in Malaysia. AIP Conference Proceedings. Vol. 1602 American Institute of Physics Inc., 2014. pp. 953-958
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