A GIS-based earthquake damage prediction in different earthquake models

A case study at the University of the Philippines Los Baños, Philippines

Ibnu Rusydy, Decibel V. Faustino-Eslava, Umar Muksin, Richelle Gallardo-Zafra, Jedidiah Joel C. Aguirre, Nathaniel C. Bantayan, Alam Lubna, Shruthi Dakey

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

The University of the Philippines Los Baños (UPLB) is located in an earthquake-prone region and there are numerous earthquake sources that can possibly cause an earthquake at any magnitude anytime. A study of the earthquake damage prediction in several earthquake magnitude and time scenarios in GIS model analysis has been conducted for the UPLB’s campus. This study aims to produce several scenarios of the earthquake models and an intensity map for UPLB’s campus; to determine the damage ratio of the buildings and its distribution in different earthquake scenarios; and to estimate the casualty in the UPLB’s community; as well as to validate the earthquake model with historical earthquakes in the Philippines. Data preparation included the earthquake scenario model using shallow crustal shaking attenuation to produce an intensity map on the bedrock and the surface after site coefficient correction. The earthquake model in different scenarios is generated from the West Valley Fault (with Segment IV as the assumed locus). The damage ratio in different types of buildings was calculated using fragility curves of buildings of the Philippines. Population data of each building in different occupancy times, damage ratios, and injury ratios is used to compute the number of the injured due to an earthquake. The results reveal that UPLB’s building are subject to intensity range of MMI (Modified Mercalli Intensity) 6.7-8.1 due to 6.1-7.7 Mw earthquake coming from different sources along the West Valley Fault. The worst event of an earthquake is 7.7 Mw from Segment IV, which can cause 32-51% damage to buildings and injure 12-24.6% of a building population in a daytime (2 PM) event and injure 8-158 students in a dormitory at 2 AM (nighttime). The validation process shows that the mean square error between the calculated intensity and the actual intensity in the Philippines is 0.35.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)301-316
Number of pages16
JournalPhilippine Journal of Science
Volume147
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jun 2018

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earthquake damage
GIS
earthquake
prediction
damage
valley
earthquake magnitude
bedrock
student

Keywords

  • Damage prediction
  • Earthquake
  • Earthquake loss scenario
  • GIS
  • UPLB

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General

Cite this

Rusydy, I., Faustino-Eslava, D. V., Muksin, U., Gallardo-Zafra, R., Aguirre, J. J. C., Bantayan, N. C., ... Dakey, S. (2018). A GIS-based earthquake damage prediction in different earthquake models: A case study at the University of the Philippines Los Baños, Philippines. Philippine Journal of Science, 147(2), 301-316.

A GIS-based earthquake damage prediction in different earthquake models : A case study at the University of the Philippines Los Baños, Philippines. / Rusydy, Ibnu; Faustino-Eslava, Decibel V.; Muksin, Umar; Gallardo-Zafra, Richelle; Aguirre, Jedidiah Joel C.; Bantayan, Nathaniel C.; Lubna, Alam; Dakey, Shruthi.

In: Philippine Journal of Science, Vol. 147, No. 2, 01.06.2018, p. 301-316.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Rusydy, I, Faustino-Eslava, DV, Muksin, U, Gallardo-Zafra, R, Aguirre, JJC, Bantayan, NC, Lubna, A & Dakey, S 2018, 'A GIS-based earthquake damage prediction in different earthquake models: A case study at the University of the Philippines Los Baños, Philippines', Philippine Journal of Science, vol. 147, no. 2, pp. 301-316.
Rusydy I, Faustino-Eslava DV, Muksin U, Gallardo-Zafra R, Aguirre JJC, Bantayan NC et al. A GIS-based earthquake damage prediction in different earthquake models: A case study at the University of the Philippines Los Baños, Philippines. Philippine Journal of Science. 2018 Jun 1;147(2):301-316.
Rusydy, Ibnu ; Faustino-Eslava, Decibel V. ; Muksin, Umar ; Gallardo-Zafra, Richelle ; Aguirre, Jedidiah Joel C. ; Bantayan, Nathaniel C. ; Lubna, Alam ; Dakey, Shruthi. / A GIS-based earthquake damage prediction in different earthquake models : A case study at the University of the Philippines Los Baños, Philippines. In: Philippine Journal of Science. 2018 ; Vol. 147, No. 2. pp. 301-316.
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